TOTAL VOLUME:
$116.9b
24H VOL:
$93,512,876
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,170,643,411
338,472
Markets across
33,488
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,292
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
September 30
- Polymarket
September 30 - Polymarket
21%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 23
Aug 24
Aug 25
Aug 26
Aug 27
Vol.
$716.3
·
Resolves Oct 1, 2026
$
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba's next Qwen Plus model (3.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Plus," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Plus tier, and be designated as version 3.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.8 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.6-Plus or Qwen3.7-Plus would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Plus, while models whose name does not include "Plus" or which retain a version designation below 3.8, such as Qwen3.7-Max, Qwen3.6-Flash, or Qwen3.7-Plus, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as Qwen3-VL-Plus, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through buying and selling shares that represent possible outcomes. The current top outcome has a chance of 99.0%, with a trading volume of $170 over the last 24 hours. Prices adjust continuously based on market activity and new information relevant to the release timeline or competing models.
This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will depend on official announcements from Alibaba or trusted technology news sources confirming which company first releases the Qwen Plus model at version 3.8 or higher.
Key signals include official statements from Alibaba about product roadmaps, major tech announcements from competing firms, significant advancements in AI model capabilities, or shifts in market expectations driven by industry analysts. Any surprise partnership, regulatory update, or release schedule change could also cause rapid price movements in this market as traders reassess probabilities.