TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 16, 6:05 PM EST
Polymarket
This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 6:05PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Stefan Kozlov. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Kozlov' if Stefan Kozlov advances against Jacob Fearnley. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market refers to the tennis match between Jacob Fearnley and Stefan Kozlov in the Newport, originally scheduled for July 9, 2026 at 6:05PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jacob Fearnley' if Jacob Fearnley advances against Stefan Kozlov. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Kozlov' if Stefan Kozlov advances against Jacob Fearnley. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different pricing mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance their book and manage risk, while prediction markets are priced by traders responding to real-time information and their own forecasts. This market aggregates the collective judgment of many participants, which can sometimes offer a different view than a single sportsbook's line. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees value or where consensus differs from professional oddsmakers.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing each possible outcome, and the price of each share adjusts based on supply and demand. As more traders buy shares for one outcome, its price rises and implied probability increases. This continuous pricing mechanism ensures the market reflects the latest available information and trader sentiment throughout the event window.
This market resolves around Jul 16, 2026, once the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official result of the tennis match at Newport. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution timing depends on when the match is completed and the result is confirmed through standard sports reporting channels.
Several factors can shift odds before the match takes place. Recent player performance, injury reports, head-to-head records, and court surface conditions at Newport all influence trader sentiment. Weather forecasts closer to the event date may also impact expectations. News about either player's form, confidence, or preparation can trigger rapid repricing. Additionally, any changes in tournament seeding or scheduling could affect how traders assess each competitor's readiness and likelihood of victory.