TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$185,329,595

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,378,420

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,813,258,821

507,072

Markets across

37,953

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MATCHED EVENTS:

2,853

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

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62%

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Newcastle vs Aston Villa
opinion
kalshi

What is the result of Newcastle vs Aston Villa?

Total volume:
$2,831,582
Volume 24h:
$2,801,849
16,733%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,512,770
5,387%

Aston Villa

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Opinion

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 17, 2:33 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Aston Villa

View
100%
67%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,425,464
N/A
N/A
$677,070
Settled
Yes
opinion

Aston Villa wins

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Newcastle

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$867,479
N/A
N/A
$485,027
Settled
No
opinion

Newcastle wins

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$538,639
N/A
N/A
$350,673
Settled
No
opinion

Draw

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether Aston Villa will win the Newcastle vs Aston Villa English Premier League soccer match. Currently, the consensus probability of Aston Villa winning is 82.0%, while a tie is given a 17.0% chance. This aggregated view combines data from Opinion and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the result of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as defined by the resolution source. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 17, 2026, to see if Aston Villa can secure a victory.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers separate markets for each outcome (Newcastle win, Aston Villa win, Draw), while opinion offers individual markets that resolve 'No' on any outcome other than the specified win.Hero tip: Be mindful that a draw will resolve differently on each platform. On Kalshi, a draw resolves 'Yes' for the 'Draw' market, but 'No' for the 'Newcastle wins' and 'Aston Villa wins' markets. Opinion resolves 'No' for the 'Newcastle wins' market if there is a draw.

Critical divergence points:

  • kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if Newcastle wins after 90 minutes + stoppage time. Separate markets exist for Aston Villa win and Draw.
  • opinion: Resolves 'Yes' if Newcastle wins the match. Resolves 'No' otherwise, including draws.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

Markets resolve based on the match outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. A win for either team resolves the respective market to Yes; a tie resolves the Tie market to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled beyond 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price.

Opinion

This market refers to the Premier League match between Newcastle (NEW) and Aston Villa (AST), scheduled for 2026-10-17 16:30 UTC. - NEW: If Newcastle wins, the outcome is settled as "Yes"; otherwise "No". - DRAW: If the match ends in a draw, the outcome is "Yes". - AST: If Aston Villa wins, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise "No". Settlement will be based on the result at the end of regular time (90 minutes) plus stoppage time. If the match is postponed, this market will remain open until the match is played and completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, the DRAW option will resolve to "Yes", while both NEW and AST options will resolve to "No". The primary settlement source will be the official result published by Premier League. If the governing body or event organizers have not published the final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus from credible sources may be used instead. Note: Opinion will resolve strictly based on the first officially published result from the designated source. Any subsequent revisions will not affect this resolution. Source: https://www.premierleague.com/

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found for this market, often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to profit from balancing wagers, while prediction markets rely on the collective intelligence of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. This can lead to prediction markets being more efficient at reflecting true probabilities, especially as more information becomes available. However, sportsbooks may offer different types of wagers not available in this market, and may adjust odds more quickly to react to breaking news.

Kalshi and Opinion can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Kalshi and Opinion for this market can arise from several factors. Differences in trader demographics, order flow, and available liquidity all contribute to varying prices. Kalshi may attract a different class of traders than Opinion, leading to distinct perspectives on the likely outcome of the Newcastle vs Aston Villa match. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform – currently $2,831,582 overall – influences price discovery; lower volume can result in greater price volatility and divergence. These factors combine to create potentially different assessments of the same event.