TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.7b
24H VOL:
$229,178,007
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,336,753,738
577,196
Markets across
14,485
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,077
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group covers the Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester United FC match scheduled for March 4, 2026, in the English Premier League. Three related markets track the outcome: whether Newcastle wins, whether Manchester United wins, and whether the match ends in a draw. All markets measure the result within 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms (Polymarket and Kalshi) apply identical resolution logic: the match result is determined by the official outcome at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with consistent handling of postponements and cancellations.
Primary resolution logic:
Official Premier League statistics (premierleague.com) and governing body records; consensus of credible reporting if official statistics unavailable within 2 hours of match conclusion.Core resolution logic:
- Newcastle United wins: Newcastle scores more goals than Manchester United at 90 minutes plus stoppage time → Newcastle market resolves Yes, Manchester United market resolves No, Draw market resolves No
- Manchester United wins: Manchester United scores more goals than Newcastle at 90 minutes plus stoppage time → Manchester United market resolves Yes, Newcastle market resolves No, Draw market resolves No
- Draw: Both teams score equal goals at 90 minutes plus stoppage time → Draw market resolves Yes, Newcastle market resolves No, Manchester United market resolves No
- Measurement scope: Only regular play and stoppage time count; extra time and penalties are excluded
- Match postponement: All markets remain open until the match is completed; resolution is deferred until actual completion
- Match cancellation with no make-up: Newcastle and Manchester United win markets resolve No; Draw market resolves Yes
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- Postponement: If the match is postponed, all markets remain open and unresolved until the match is rescheduled and completed. Resolution occurs based on the final result of the completed match.
- Cancellation without make-up: If the match is canceled entirely with no make-up game scheduled, the Newcastle and Manchester United win markets resolve to No (neither team won), while the Draw market resolves to Yes (the match did not produce a winner).
- Source delay: If the Premier League or governing body does not publish official final statistics within 2 hours after the match conclusion, resolution may proceed using consensus from credible sports reporting sources.
- Extra time and penalties: Only the result at 90 minutes plus stoppage time is used for resolution. Extra time and penalty shootouts (if applicable) are not considered.
Timing:
Resolution occurs at the conclusion of 90 minutes plus stoppage time on March 4, 2026, or on the rescheduled match date if postponed. Official statistics must be published or consensus reporting available within 2 hours of match conclusion for immediate resolution.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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