TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings between the Yankees and Nationals?

Volume:
$115,107

New York Y wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 10:19 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73,872
N/A
N/A
$44,567
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Washington Nationals

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Washington wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,697
N/A
N/A
$17,938
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,180
N/A
N/A
$11,476
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$38
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings in a Major League Baseball game between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead, or if the game is tied, after the completion of the 5th inning.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution rules contain a logical contradiction where all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Yankees win, Nationals win, tie) are stated to resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable. Additionally, the scheduled game dates differ between platforms (Jul 10 vs Jul 11, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade on Kalshi until the rules are corrected. Polymarket's three-way categorical resolution (Yankees / Nationals / Draw) is logically sound and resolvable. Confirm the actual game date with MLB.com official schedule before placing any bets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcomes (Yankees win first 5, Nationals win first 5, tie after 5) are stated to resolve to Yes. This is a logical contradiction. Game date: Jul 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. Key quote: 'If New York Y wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If Washington wins... then the market resolves to Yes. If New York Y and Washington tie... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Clear three-way categorical resolution: Yankees winning resolves to Yankees, Nationals winning resolves to Nationals, tie resolves to Draw. Game date: Jul 11, 2026 at 4:05 PM ET. Includes tie handling and postponement/cancellation protocols. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to New York Yankees if the New York Yankees is winning... Washington Nationals if the Washington Nationals is winning... Draw if the game is tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Washington Nationals, scheduled for July 11 at 4:05 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Washington Nationals" if the Washington Nationals is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the score at the end of the first five innings of the New York Yankees vs Washington professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. If New York Yankees has more runs than Washington after five innings, the New York Yankees outcome resolves to Yes. If Washington has more runs than New York Yankees after five innings, the Washington outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams have scored the same number of runs after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

The Yankees-Nationals first 5 innings market aggregates prediction odds across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which team will lead after the first five innings of play. This market captures early-game momentum and pitcher performance over a compressed timeframe, distinct from full-game outcomes. Traders on both platforms price the likelihood of each outcome independently, creating a real-time consensus view of who holds the advantage through the midpoint of the contest. Volume and price discovery across venues help traders gauge conviction and identify potential value.

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price the same event through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds to balance liability and extract a margin, while prediction markets rely on trader consensus—buy and sell orders from participants with real money at stake. Prediction markets often reflect sharper, more dynamic pricing because traders can enter and exit positions continuously. Sportsbook odds may lag behind market-driven repricing, especially in niche markets like first five innings outcomes. Comparing this market's odds across both venues can reveal which pricing model the broader market favors.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and trading strategies, leading to price divergence even on identical events. Polymarket and Kalshi may have varying fee structures, user interfaces, and settlement timelines that influence how traders value risk. Market depth and order flow also differ; one venue may see larger positions or more active hedging activity. These differences create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both platforms, though transaction costs and withdrawal delays often prevent perfect convergence.

Lineup announcements, starting pitcher confirmation, and recent team form significantly influence early-game expectations. Injury reports or late roster changes can shift the odds rapidly, especially if key batters or relief arms are unavailable. Weather conditions at game time—wind direction, temperature, and humidity—affect ball carry and pitcher control in the early innings. Betting action and sharp money flowing into one side can trigger repricing across both platforms. Real-time game developments like early runs, errors, or pitching changes during the first five innings will drive final price adjustments before settlement.