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New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Yankees or Rays?

Volume:
$88,881

Tampa Bay wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Tampa Bay wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 8:20 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Tampa Bay wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$48,216
N/A
N/A
$33,721
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tampa Bay Rays

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,196
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$32,412
N/A
N/A
$24,813
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,047
N/A
N/A
$5,368
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group captures the outcome of the first 5 innings of the MLB game between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the conclusion of the 5th inning, with three possible outcomes: Yankees lead, Rays lead, or tied score.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market structure contains a logical contradiction where all three possible outcomes resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable. Additionally, the platforms reference different game dates (July 7 vs July 8, 2026).Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group due to unresolvable logic. Use Polymarket exclusively, which offers three mutually exclusive binary contracts with clear resolution criteria. Confirm the actual game date with MLB.com official schedule before committing capital.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All three outcomes (Yankees win first 5, Rays win first 5, tie in first 5) are marked to resolve Yes. This creates a logical impossibility where the market cannot distinguish between outcomes. Game date listed as July 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. Quote: 'If New York Y wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If Tampa Bay wins...then the market resolves to Yes. If...tie...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Three separate binary markets with mutually exclusive outcomes: Yankees winning (Yes/No), Rays winning (Yes/No), and Draw (Yes/No). Only one outcome can be true at 5-inning conclusion. Game date listed as July 8, 2026 at 6:40 PM ET. Includes explicit protocols for postponements (market stays open until 5th inning completed) and cancellations (50-50 resolution). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yankees if Yankees is winning...Rays if Rays is winning...Draw if tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays, scheduled for July 8 at 6:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Tampa Bay Rays" if the Tampa Bay Rays is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the score at the end of the first 5 innings of the professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 7, 2026 at 6:40 PM EDT. If New York Y has more runs after 5 innings, the New York Y outcome resolves to Yes and others resolve to No. If Tampa Bay has more runs after 5 innings, the Tampa Bay outcome resolves to Yes and others resolve to No. If the score is tied after 5 innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price games differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets rely on trader conviction and real-money risk. Prediction markets often reflect sharper, more granular information—especially for niche props like first-five-inning outcomes—because traders with edge can profit directly. However, sportsbooks may move faster on breaking news or injury reports. Comparing this market's odds to your preferred sportsbook can reveal value, particularly if one platform has lagged in pricing recent developments.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and regulatory frameworks. Kalshi operates under CFTC oversight with structured binary contracts, while Polymarket uses an AMM model and draws a global, crypto-native audience. Order flow timing, funding availability, and platform-specific incentives can cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, each platform's fee structure and user interface influence how quickly new information gets priced in. Monitoring both venues reveals arbitrage signals and helps you identify which market is leading price discovery on this particular matchup.

Injury announcements—especially to starting pitchers or key hitters—can shift odds significantly before first pitch. Weather updates, lineup changes, and bullpen availability all influence early-inning dynamics. Pregame betting action on the full-game moneyline can telegraph sharp money and move this market in sympathy. Recent team performance, head-to-head records, and home-field advantage also factor into trader positioning. As game time approaches, watch for late-breaking news on player status or weather delays, which often trigger repricing across both platforms within minutes.