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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox - First 5 Innings Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the first 5 innings: Yankees or Red Sox?

Volume:
$179,139

Boston wins first 5 innings

 - Kalshi

Boston wins first 5 innings - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Boston wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$29,118
N/A
N/A
$18,145
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York Y wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$139,265
N/A
N/A
$120,524
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,756
N/A
N/A
$8,557
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Yankees

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Boston Red Sox

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group captures prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of the June 25, 2026 MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for 7:10 PM EDT. Markets are offered across Kalshi and Polymarket, with differing question structures but overlapping resolution logic.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market contains a logical contradiction: all three mutually exclusive outcomes (Yankees win, Red Sox win, tie) are mapped to Yes resolution, making the market fundamentally unresolvable and economically meaningless.Hero tip: Do not trade the Kalshi market. Its resolution logic is broken—every possible game outcome resolves to Yes, which violates basic market coherence. Trade only Polymarket, which correctly maps Yankees win, Red Sox win, and tie to three distinct outcomes. Contact PredictionHero support if you hold Kalshi positions.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Market structure claims three outcomes: Yankees first 5 win resolves Yes, Red Sox first 5 win resolves Yes, tie resolves Yes. This is logically incoherent because exactly one of these three states must occur, yet all three trigger Yes. Quote: 'If New York Y wins the first 5 innings...then the market resolves to Yes. If Boston wins the first 5 innings...then the market resolves to Yes. If New York Y and Boston tie...then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Market structure correctly defines three mutually exclusive outcomes: Yankees winning resolves to Yankees, Red Sox winning resolves to Red Sox, tie resolves to Draw. Includes explicit handling of postponements (market remains open until 5th inning completion) and cancellations (50-50 split if no makeup game). Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yankees if Yankees is winning...Red Sox if Red Sox is winning...Draw if tied.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, scheduled for June 25 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Yankees" if the New York Yankees is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Boston Red Sox" if the Boston Red Sox is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the first five innings. If New York leads after five innings, the New York outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. If Boston leads after five innings, the Boston outcome resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No. If the score is tied after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game concludes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

The Yankees-Red Sox first 5 innings market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, tracking which team will lead after the first five innings of play. This market captures early-game momentum and pitching matchup sentiment before the full nine-inning result is determined. Traders on both platforms price the likelihood of a Yankees win, Red Sox win, or tie through the fifth inning independently, creating a real-time consensus view of how the game's opening phase is expected to unfold. Combined activity reflects strong interest in short-window sports outcomes.

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on crowd-sourced pricing, where traders buy and sell shares to express their beliefs about outcomes. Sportsbooks, by contrast, set fixed odds and manage risk through betting limits and juice. Prediction market odds often reflect real-time information flow and can shift rapidly as new data emerges, whereas sportsbook lines adjust more deliberately to manage liability. For early-inning markets like this one, prediction platforms may price outcomes differently based on trader composition, liquidity depth, and settlement rule variations between venues.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, leading to natural price variation. Kalshi and Polymarket also operate under distinct regulatory frameworks and contract specifications, which can influence how traders interpret and price the same event. On this market, differences in how a tie or delayed score is handled, minimum order sizes, or fee structures may cause one platform to price a Yankees or Red Sox first-five win slightly higher or lower. Arbitrage-minded traders often exploit these spreads, but gaps can persist due to withdrawal friction and platform-specific incentives.

Starting lineups and bullpen availability announcements often shift this market significantly, since early-inning performance depends heavily on starter quality and early relief usage. Injury reports, weather forecasts affecting ball carry, and recent offensive trends in first-inning scoring can all trigger repricing. Pregame betting action at sportsbooks may also influence prediction market traders seeking to align with broader market consensus. Real-time game events—such as an early run or a pitcher change—will cause sharp moves once play begins. Monitor team news and weather updates in the hours leading up to first pitch for the most volatile trading windows.