TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether New York Y and Washington will combine to score more than 5.5 runs in their matchup. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 99.0%. Resolution is determined by the official combined run total from the New York Y vs Washington professional baseball game scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT, as reported by the resolution source. Watch for the final score announcement on July 11, 2026, when the market will settle based on the actual runs scored by both teams.
The market resolves based on the total number of runs scored by both New York Yankees and Washington combined in their professional baseball game originally scheduled for July 10, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT. Each outcome corresponds to a specific run threshold, with the market resolving to Yes if the combined total exceeds that threshold. The thresholds progress from 4.5 runs through 14.5 runs in half-run increments. For example, the Over 4.5 runs outcome resolves to Yes if the teams combine for 5 or more runs, while the Over 14.5 runs outcome resolves to Yes only if they combine for 15 or more runs. Each threshold operates independently, allowing multiple outcomes to resolve to Yes if the final combined total is sufficiently high.
Prediction market odds and traditional sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and manage risk, while prediction markets like this one are driven by traders wagering real money on their beliefs about the outcome. Over time, prediction markets have proven competitive with or more accurate than sportsbook consensus, especially when informed traders participate actively. Comparing the two can reveal where public perception and market-derived probability estimates differ most.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the market's collective estimate of the probability that the total runs will land in a given range. Prices move in real time as new trades execute, and you can view the bid-ask spread to gauge liquidity and entry costs. The platform's transparent pricing mechanism ensures all participants see the same live quotes.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the game concludes and the final run total is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Until that point, prices will fluctuate as new information emerges—injury reports, weather updates, or lineup changes—that could shift expectations around total scoring. Resolution is automatic once the event result is official and posted.
Several catalysts can shift prices in this market before Jul 11, 2026. Key player injuries or roster changes announced by either team will alter run-scoring potential. Weather conditions—wind speed and direction, temperature—affect ball carry and can boost or suppress scoring. Lineup announcements, bullpen availability, and recent offensive or defensive trends also influence trader positioning. Breaking news about team strategy or late-game developments will trigger repricing as the market absorbs new information.