TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 28, 10:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether New York Y will win their matchup against Boston by more than 1.5 runs, with the leading outcome currently at 27.0% on Kalshi. The second outcome, New York Y winning by over 2.5 runs, stands at 11.0%. Resolution is determined by the official result of the professional baseball game scheduled for June 28, 2026 at 7:20 PM EDT, as reported by the resolution source. The betting window closes at the start of the game on June 28, 2026.
Resolution is determined by calculating the run differential (winning team's score minus losing team's score) in the New York Y vs Boston professional baseball game originally scheduled for June 28, 2026 at 7:20 PM EDT. Boston outcomes resolve to Yes if Boston wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). New York Y outcomes resolve to Yes if New York Y wins by more than the specified margin (1.5, 2.5, or 3.5 runs). If the game ends in a tie, all outcomes resolve to No.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market's odds represent aggregated trader conviction rather than a bookmaker's calculated spread. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional bettors and casual traders view the run differential differently. Prediction markets typically adjust faster to breaking news, making them useful for spotting shifts in sentiment that sportsbooks may lag on.
This market resolves around Jun 29, 2026, once the game concludes and the final run differential is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome hinges on whether Boston's margin of victory exceeds 2.5 runs. Your position settles automatically based on the confirmed result, with winnings or losses credited to your account. Until that date, the market remains open for trading, allowing you to adjust your exposure as new information emerges.
Key roster developments—injuries to star players, trades, or lineup changes—can shift trader expectations significantly. Recent team performance, head-to-head matchup history, and home-field advantage all influence probability estimates. Weather conditions on game day, particularly wind direction and temperature, affect run-scoring potential. Line movement at sportsbooks and sharp action from professional bettors often precedes prediction market repricing. Breaking news about player availability or coaching decisions typically triggers rapid price adjustments as traders update their forecasts.