TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 7:06 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on determining whether Miami or New York achieves a decisive lead in the final quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be surpassed by one team over the other in the fourth quarter alone.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between New York and Miami during the 4th quarter of the originally scheduled game on Aug 22, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. Each market has a distinct threshold: Miami must win the quarter by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or New York must win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored in the 4th quarter count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, meaning each resolves separately according to its specific condition. No affiliation or endorsement by the governing league is implied, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often differ from traditional sportsbook lines because they reflect the aggregated wisdom of informed traders rather than set benchmarks. In this market, the pricing can move more rapidly with new information, such as key player injuries or weather updates, while sportsbooks may adjust less frequently. Traders on Kalshi are typically more focused on precise point spreads and timing, which can create divergence from standard sportsbook odds on the same matchup.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread after the fourth quarter will be compared against the market’s defined parameters, and the result will be finalized based on official game records and widely accepted sports data sources.
Key signals that could shift this market include major player injuries, weather delays, coaching strategies revealed in the hours before the game, and live in-game momentum swings during early quarters. Any development that changes the perceived likelihood of a high- or low-scoring fourth quarter will be reflected quickly in trader activity and price adjustments on Kalshi.