TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 22, 4:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on determining which team will lead after the first quarter of play in an upcoming professional football game. It captures the immediate competitive momentum at the very start of the match, reflecting early performance rather than the full-game outcome.
The market resolves based on which team scores the most points in the first quarter of the designated professional football game. If Miami scores more points than New York in the first quarter, the 'Miami wins 1st Quarter' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if New York scores more points than Miami in the first quarter, the 'New York wins 1st Quarter' market resolves to Yes. If both teams finish the first quarter with equal points, neither team market resolves to Yes, and instead the 'Tie 1st Quarter' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the first quarter count toward determining the outcome, and the broader game result does not affect these resolutions.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect the aggregated beliefs of active traders, often diverging from traditional sportsbook lines due to sharper, faster adjustments. While sportsbooks may lag or incorporate broader public sentiment, this market prices in real-time reactions to team news, player injuries, and tactical updates, potentially offering a more nuanced view of likely outcomes.
This market resolves around Aug 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result is determined by the official game records showing which team led at the end of the first quarter, and the platform updates accordingly.
Key signals include last-minute roster changes, weather forecasts affecting early gameplay, and strategic decisions by coaches that could sway the first quarter’s momentum. Any surprise starter announcements or injury updates released close to the match could cause rapid shifts in trader positioning, driving volatility in this market right up until Aug 22, 2026.