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399,592

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds - First 5 Innings Winner
polymarket
kalshi

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds - First 5 Innings Winner

Volume:
$91,688

Cincinnati wins first 5 innings

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 9:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Cincinnati wins first 5 innings

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$74,584
N/A
N/A
$53,551
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Cincinnati Reds

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

New York M wins first 5 innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,234
N/A
N/A
$7,060
Settled
No
polymarket

New York Mets

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,851
N/A
N/A
$7,566
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event group covers prediction markets on the outcome of the first 5 innings of an MLB game between the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. Markets resolve based on which team is ahead (or if tied) at the end of the 5th inning, with provisions for postponements and cancellations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi presents three binary Yes/No questions covering all possible outcomes (Mets win, Reds win, Tie) without explicit mutual exclusivity logic, creating a logical contradiction. Polymarket uses a unified three-outcome structure with clear resolution rules. The two platforms cannot both resolve consistently under the same game result.Hero tip: Polymarket's structure is logically sound and should be treated as the reference model. For Kalshi, request clarification on whether the three markets are mutually exclusive or if multiple can resolve Yes. If trading both platforms, monitor for platform-specific resolution announcements before the game concludes. Consider the risk that Kalshi may resolve all three to Yes or may require manual intervention to determine which single outcome occurred.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Unified three-outcome market (Mets / Reds / Draw). Resolves to the team ahead at end of 5th inning, or Draw if tied. Postponed games remain open until 5th inning is completed. Cancelled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Primary source: official MLB statistics within 24 hours, credible reporting as fallback. Quote: 'This market will resolve to New York Mets if the New York Mets is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to Cincinnati Reds if the Cincinnati Reds is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to Draw.'
  • Kalshi: Three separate binary Yes/No markets, each asking if a specific outcome occurs (Tie, Reds win, or Mets win). No explicit mutual exclusivity clause or specification of which outcome takes precedence if multiple conditions are met. Quote: 'If New York M and Cincinnati tie in the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes. If Cincinnati wins the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes. If New York M wins the first 5 innings... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for June 15 at 7:10 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds is winning the game at the conclusion of the 5th inning. If the game is tied at the conclusion of the 5th inning, this market will resolve to "Draw". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the 5th inning has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the score at the end of the fifth inning in the New York M vs Cincinnati game originally scheduled for June 15, 2026 at 7:10 PM EDT. If New York M has more runs after five innings, the New York M outcome resolves to Yes. If Cincinnati has more runs after five innings, the Cincinnati outcome resolves to Yes. If both teams have equal runs after five innings, the Tie outcome resolves to Yes and all team outcomes resolve to No. If the game is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled game finishes within two days.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi operate on peer-to-peer trading rather than fixed sportsbook lines, meaning odds reflect live supply and demand from thousands of traders. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, which employ oddsmakers and margin, these platforms aggregate distributed forecasts into real-time prices. For early-inning markets like this one, prediction odds can diverge significantly from sportsbook spreads because traders may weight bullpen availability, weather, or recent performance differently than bookmakers do. Comparing both sources helps identify where smart money is positioning itself.

Lineup announcements, bullpen availability, weather conditions, and recent team performance are key catalysts that shift odds before first pitch. Injury reports—especially to starting pitchers or key hitters—can trigger sharp moves, as can late-breaking news about rest days or roster changes. During the game itself, early runs, pitching changes, and momentum swings in the first few innings will drive rapid repricing. Live trading volume typically spikes after the first inning, as traders react to actual performance and adjust their positions based on how the matchup unfolds.