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$134.2b

24H VOL:

$134,145,987

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2,388,728,490

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

Markets across

30,383

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,688

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

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61%

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New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves?

Volume:
$2,047,953

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

 - Polymarket

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 6, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 12:30 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,668,984
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 9.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$37,128
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 13.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,576
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 12.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,220
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 11.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,376
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 10.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$7,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NRFI

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 15.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 8.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
9.3¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$69
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$60
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 14.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 18.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19.2¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167,896
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$129,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Game goes to extra innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$335
N/A
N/A
$335
Settled
No
polymarket

Extra Innings

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$240
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Spread -2.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

O/U 19.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This event group tracks three related outcomes from the New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves matchup scheduled for July 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET: the final spread result, first-inning scoring, and whether the game extends to extra innings. Across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability for the Mets spread at -3.5 stands at 10.0%, while the over/under on first five innings totaling 2.5 runs shows 100.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by official MLB.com final statistics and box score, with credible reporting consensus applied if official data is unavailable within 24 hours of game conclusion. Watch the game start time and early inning action on July 5 to assess whether initial momentum aligns with market expectations.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All three markets (match winner, first inning run, extra innings) share identical postponement handling, cancellation resolution (50-50), and primary resolution source (MLB.com official statistics with 24-hour credible reporting fallback).Primary resolution logic: Official MLB.com final statistics and box score; credible reporting consensus if official statistics unavailable within 24 hours of game conclusion

Core resolution logic:

  • Match winner resolves to New York Mets if Mets win; Atlanta Braves if Braves win
  • First inning run resolves to Yes if at least one run is scored by either team in the 1st inning; No if zero runs scored in 1st inning
  • Extra innings resolves to Yes if game proceeds to extra innings; No if game concludes in regulation (9 innings)
  • If game is postponed, all markets remain open until the makeup game is completed
  • If game is canceled entirely with no makeup game, all markets resolve 50-50
  • If match winner game ends in a tie, market resolves 50-50

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Game Postponement: Market remains open. Traders must monitor MLB.com home team schedule for makeup game listing. Resolution occurs after makeup game completion using same criteria.
  • Game Cancellation (No Makeup): All three markets resolve 50-50 if game is canceled entirely with no makeup game scheduled.
  • Tie Game (Match Winner Only): Match winner market resolves 50-50 if game ends in a tie. First inning run and extra innings markets resolve based on actual game statistics before tie occurs.
  • Delayed Official Statistics: If MLB.com does not publish final statistics within 24 hours of game conclusion, credible reporting consensus (e.g., ESPN, MLB.com news, official team sources) may be used for resolution.
Timing: Resolution occurs after game completion and official statistics publication on MLB.com, or within 24 hours thereafter if credible reporting consensus is required. Postponed games remain unresolved until makeup game is played and completed.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming MLB game between the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves, scheduled for July 5 at 12:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York Mets" if the New York Mets win the game. This market will resolve to "Atlanta Braves" if the Atlanta Braves win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Kalshi

If New York M and Atlanta go to extra innings in the New York M vs Atlanta professional baseball game originally scheduled for Jul 5, 2026 at 12:30 PM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets and sportsbooks price outcomes differently because they operate under distinct incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets aggregate trader beliefs through continuous price discovery. This market reflects what thousands of independent traders believe will happen, often incorporating information faster than traditional sportsbooks adjust their lines. Comparing this market's prices to major sportsbook odds can reveal value opportunities, though prediction market liquidity and sportsbook spreads should both factor into your analysis.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, operates under distinct fee structures, and may list slightly different contract specifications. Polymarket and Kalshi also differ in how they handle order flow and market depth, which can cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, one platform may have higher participation from informed traders on a particular outcome, or liquidity may concentrate on one contract variant over another. These differences typically narrow over time as arbitrageurs exploit spreads, but they create real trading opportunities in the interim.

Key catalysts include roster changes, injury announcements, weather forecasts, and recent team performance trends. If either team's starting pitcher is ruled out or replaced, market prices will likely shift significantly. Betting line movement at major sportsbooks often precedes prediction market repricing, so monitoring those shifts can signal incoming trader activity here. Additionally, any breaking news about player health, lineup adjustments, or venue conditions in the hours before game time typically triggers rapid repricing as traders incorporate new information.