TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 4:14 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the number of passing attempts made by specific quarterbacks in a football game, resolving based on whether they meet or exceed certain thresholds. Each market focuses on a different player and a unique minimum number of attempts required for a positive outcome.
All markets resolve based on the number of passing attempts recorded by either Cam Ward or Geno Smith during the New York Jets vs Tennessee Titans Pro Football game scheduled for September 13, 2026. For each market, if the specified quarterback records the stated number of passing attempts or more, the market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the specific threshold or quarterback involved.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the dynamic nature of trading. Sportsbooks set initial odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market’s prices are driven by individuals actively buying and selling contracts based on their own insights. As new information emerges – such as injury reports or weather forecasts – the prices in this market can adjust more rapidly than traditional sportsbook odds, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different passing attempt totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that specific outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price moves based on supply and demand; if more traders believe a higher passing attempt total is likely, they will bid up the price of those contracts, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing attempt total, as recorded by official game statistics, will determine which contracts pay out. The exact number of passing attempts made by both teams combined during the game will be the determining factor for settlement. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the market’s resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Key quarterback injuries for either New York or Tennessee would significantly impact expectations regarding passing volume. Changes in weather conditions, particularly strong winds or heavy rain, could lead to a decrease in passing attempts. Unexpected coaching decisions regarding offensive strategy, or even in-game adjustments based on the score and time remaining, could also move this market. Any news impacting the perceived strength of either team’s passing offense is likely to be reflected in trading activity.