TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 13, 1:25 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. Each market is tied to a specific player, and the outcome depends on whether that player achieves the first scoring play of the match.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player scores the first touchdown of the game. If the player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market outcome is determined solely by whether that player scores the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets for this event.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to be more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially closer to the event. This is because prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, allowing for a more nuanced assessment of probabilities. While sportsbooks may incorporate biases or limitations in their modeling, this market reflects the collective beliefs of a diverse group of traders. However, initial sportsbook lines often influence early trading activity, and discrepancies can emerge due to differing risk assessments and market participants.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling contracts lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective expectation, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and trading accordingly. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on which player officially scores the first touchdown in the New York J vs Tennessee game, as determined by official game statistics. The resolution will be based on the official game record and verified against credible public sources. Any disputes regarding the outcome will be addressed according to Kalshi’s standard procedures.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. News regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also impact the expected game plan and affect which players are favored to score. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could move the market. Finally, significant trading volume driven by informed bettors could also cause price fluctuations.