TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:26 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how many passing touchdowns each starting quarterback achieves. It allows participants to speculate on offensive efficiency and player utilization strategies during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing touchdowns recorded by either Jared Goff or Geno Smith during the New York J vs Detroit Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 27, 2026. For any market, if the relevant quarterback is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of passing touchdowns recorded during the game. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 1+, 2+, etc.), and if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. These rules apply independently to markets for both quarterbacks, allowing separate evaluation of each player's performance against their respective thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi, tends to reflect a more accurate probability assessment, as participants are incentivized to bet based on their genuine beliefs. However, sportsbook odds can be influenced by public betting patterns and promotional offers, leading to potential discrepancies with the probabilities implied by this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders submit bids and asks for contracts representing different outcomes. The current price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their prices based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and responsive market. The more traders who believe an outcome is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the New York J vs Detroit game will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand the settlement of this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the New York J or Detroit teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Furthermore, late-breaking reports on team strategies or defensive adjustments could lead to traders reassessing the probabilities of different outcomes. Public sentiment and expert analysis regarding the game’s likely outcome may also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.