TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how many times they successfully connect with their receivers. The outcome depends on whether each player meets or exceeds predetermined completion thresholds during the match.
All markets resolve based on the total number of passing completions achieved by the named quarterback—Jared Goff or Geno Smith—during the New York Jets vs. Detroit Lions game scheduled for September 27, 2026. For any market, if the specified quarterback is active but does not take a single snap, the market settles at its fair market price determined before the game begins. However, once the quarterback takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly according to the actual number of completions recorded during the game. Each market has a distinct threshold (e.g., 19+, 24+, or 29+ for Goff; 16+, 21+, or 26+ for Smith), and resolution is binary: 'Yes' if the threshold is met or exceeded, 'No' otherwise. All markets are independent, meaning the resolution of one does not affect the others. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often incorporating information and analysis beyond what’s immediately available in traditional sportsbook odds. While sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk assessment, this market allows anyone to trade based on their own insights, leading to potentially different probabilities. You may find that the implied probability of a specific completion total in this market diverges from sportsbook offerings, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts closer to the event date. It's a good exercise to compare and contrast the two to see where the discrepancies lie.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, meaning traders are constantly buying and selling contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing completions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective belief of traders. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts predicting a higher number of completions, the price of those contracts will rise, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and provide a real-time assessment of the likely outcome of the game.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final official passing completion statistics for the New York J vs Detroit game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of completed passes, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. Traders will have until the resolution time to adjust their positions based on any late-breaking news or analysis. It's important to monitor the official NFL statistics following the game to understand how this market settles.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they predict adverse conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence trading activity, as these conditions typically lead to fewer completed passes. Furthermore, any strategic adjustments announced by either coaching staff, or even unexpected changes in the game plan, could shift the market's expectations and lead to price movements. Monitoring these signals is crucial for informed trading in this market.