TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:54 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how often they attempt passes. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will reach certain thresholds of pass attempts during the match. Outcomes are determined purely by the official game statistics.
All markets in this event resolve based on the total number of passing attempts recorded by the designated quarterback—either Jared Goff or Geno Smith—during the New York Jets versus Detroit Lions game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold (e.g., 29+, 34+, etc.), and if the quarterback meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' If the quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all markets for this event, ensuring consistency in resolution criteria.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a more nuanced view than traditional sportsbooks, as they aggregate the opinions of many individual traders. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives. It’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, both aim to accurately predict the outcome, and discrepancies can present opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, ranges of total passing attempts. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time assessment of expectations for the game. The market's efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately forecast the result.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final, official passing attempts total from the New York J versus Detroit game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual passing attempts fall within the range specified by each contract, with payouts determined by the contract’s price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market. Any news regarding quarterback injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact, as would changes in weather forecasts – particularly conditions expected to favor a passing or running game. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about player availability or changes to the game plan could cause prices to adjust as traders react to the new information.