TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 21, 10:46 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks quarterback performance in a specific football game, focusing on how often they attempt passes. The outcome depends on whether the players meet certain thresholds for pass attempts during the match. These thresholds vary, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of high or moderate passing volume by individual quarterbacks.
All markets resolve based on whether specified quarterbacks record a minimum number of passing attempts in the New York G vs Los Angeles R game scheduled for Sep 21, 2026. If a quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual passing attempts recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all outcome thresholds for both Matthew Stafford and Jaxson Dart, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the attempt threshold being observed.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance betting action, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders attempting to forecast the actual number of passing attempts. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply varying levels of confidence in a particular outcome. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe a particular passing attempt range is likely, the price of contracts for that range will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, offering a forward-looking assessment of the event.
This market resolves around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing attempts recorded by each quarterback in the New York G versus Los Angeles R game will determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official statistics released by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result.
Several factors could influence the NFL passing attempts market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players – particularly the quarterbacks or wide receivers – for either team could significantly shift expectations. Changes in weather forecasts, such as the prediction of heavy rain or strong winds, might lead traders to anticipate fewer passing attempts. Game script developments during the game itself, like a large early lead by one team, could also cause the market to react. This market will resolve around Sep 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are available.