TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 9:57 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLS game between New York City FC and Toronto FC, scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York City FC" if New York City FC score more goals than Toronto FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if New York City FC and Toronto FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Toronto FC" if Toronto FC score more goals than New York City FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming MLS game between New York City FC and Toronto FC, scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York City FC" if New York City FC score more goals than Toronto FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if New York City FC and Toronto FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Toronto FC" if Toronto FC score more goals than New York City FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and protect their margin, while prediction markets aggregate the collective beliefs of traders risking real capital. This market may show different probabilities than traditional sports betting sites, particularly as the match approaches and live data becomes available. Comparing the two can reveal where informed traders see value relative to conventional oddsmakers.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time probability estimates. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders purchase shares representing different outcomes, and the cost of each share adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. The current price of a share directly reflects the market's implied probability for that outcome. As more traders enter or exit positions, prices shift to equilibrate supply, creating a continuous price discovery mechanism.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, once the second half of the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by the final score or result recorded during the second half only, independent of any first-half events. Resolution occurs after official confirmation, ensuring accuracy and preventing disputes. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout once the event is confirmed.
Several factors may shift odds in this market before Jul 31, 2026. Team news—injuries, roster changes, or tactical announcements—can alter perceived strength. First-half performance and scoreline will heavily influence second-half expectations, as trailing teams may adopt aggressive strategies while leaders play defensively. Weather conditions, referee assignments, and historical head-to-head trends also influence trader positioning. As the match approaches, increased media coverage and expert commentary may drive late repositioning among market participants.