TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 25, 10:08 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming MLS game between New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC, scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York City FC" if New York City FC score more goals than Chicago Fire FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chicago Fire FC" if Chicago Fire FC score more goals than New York City FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
In the upcoming MLS game between New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC, scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New York City FC" if New York City FC score more goals than Chicago Fire FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Draw" if New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC score the same number of goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Chicago Fire FC" if Chicago Fire FC score more goals than New York City FC in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Draw". This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Prediction market odds and sportsbook odds often diverge because they reflect different participant bases and incentive structures. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and lock in profit margins, while prediction markets like this one aggregate the beliefs of traders who profit or lose based on accuracy. This market may price the second half outcome differently than traditional sports betting venues because traders here face direct financial consequences for being wrong. Comparing the two can reveal where one venue sees value the other has missed.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader orders into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares representing each possible outcome, and the price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate. As more traders position themselves around the second half result, the price adjusts continuously. The leading outcome currently reflects where the majority of capital has accumulated, though prices remain fluid until the market resolves.
This market resolves around Jul 25, 2026, once the second half of the match concludes and the result is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the final score and result recorded in official MLS records after the full 45 minutes of second-half play. Traders holding positions in the winning outcome receive their payout once the event is confirmed and the market is settled by the platform.
Several factors can shift prices in this market before resolution. Team news—injuries, lineup changes, or tactical adjustments announced before kickoff—often triggers sharp moves. First-half performance is a major catalyst; if one side dominates the opening 45 minutes, traders will reprice the second-half outcome based on momentum and fatigue patterns. Weather conditions, referee decisions, and in-game momentum swings during the first half can all reshape expectations for how the second half unfolds. Real-time updates and expert commentary may also influence trader positioning as the event approaches.