TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 25, 9:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This event group covers the exact final score of an MLS match between New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET. Polymarket offers granular exact-score markets (0-0 through 3-3 plus Any Other Score), while Kalshi provides derivative win-margin markets (>1.5 and >2.5 goal differentials for each team). Both resolve based on the 90-minute regulation result plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties.
In the upcoming MLS game between New York City FC and Chicago Fire FC, scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the New York City FC vs. Chicago Fire FC match originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 7:30 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Resolution is based on the final goal differential in the New York City vs Chicago Fire professional MLS soccer game originally scheduled for July 25, 2026, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (excluding extra time or penalties). The event encompasses four distinct outcomes: New York City winning by more than 2.5 goals, New York City winning by more than 1.5 goals, Chicago Fire winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Chicago Fire winning by more than 2.5 goals. Each outcome resolves independently to Yes if its specified margin condition is met.
Prediction markets like those tracked here operate on crowd-sourced pricing: traders buy and sell shares tied to outcomes, and the market price reflects genuine belief rather than a sportsbook's margin-adjusted line. Sportsbooks set odds to balance action and lock in profit; prediction markets instead aggregate dispersed information from many participants. This market often reveals sharper, less biased estimates of true probability, especially when traders have strong conviction. However, sportsbook odds may tighten closer to kickoff due to higher volume and professional action, so comparing both venues can reveal valuable discrepancies.
Team news—injuries to key players, lineup changes, or tactical shifts—can significantly reprrice the odds for different scorelines. Recent form, head-to-head history, and weather conditions at kickoff all influence trader sentiment. Major betting syndicates or sharp money entering either platform can trigger rapid price swings. As the match date approaches, closing sportsbook lines often anchor prediction market prices tighter. During the game itself, live score updates and momentum shifts drive intraday volatility. Monitoring team social media, injury reports, and early betting action helps you anticipate these moves before they're fully priced in.