TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 3:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether New Orleans will win against Baltimore by more than 1.5 points. Currently, the probability of New Orleans winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 54.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the New Orleans vs Baltimore Pro Football game, with resolution details found in the official game result if New Orleans wins by more than 4.5 points. Keep a close eye on the game itself, scheduled for September 20, 2026, as the final score will determine the market’s outcome.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the New Orleans vs Baltimore Pro Football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory. If Baltimore wins by exceeding the stated points in any of the markets labeled 'Baltimore wins by over X points,' that market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if New Orleans wins by exceeding the stated points in any market labeled 'New Orleans wins by over X points,' that market resolves to Yes. All markets are independent, and each threshold represents a distinct outcome condition. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market is driven purely by trader predictions. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that prediction market odds are dynamic and change based on real-time trading activity, potentially converging with sportsbook lines as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the New Orleans versus Baltimore spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that as more traders believe New Orleans will win by over 4.5 points, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. The market aggregates these individual predictions to create a collective forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread achieved in the New Orleans versus Baltimore game will be the determining factor. If New Orleans wins by more than 4.5 points, contracts predicting that outcome will pay out. Otherwise, those contracts will expire worthless. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. News regarding key player injuries for either New Orleans or Baltimore would likely cause significant price movement. Changes in public perception, reflected in polls or expert analysis, could also shift the odds. Unexpected weather forecasts for the game day could also play a role, as weather conditions can impact scoring and game strategy. Any major developments related to team performance or coaching decisions could also contribute to volatility in this market.