TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$87,997,338
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,395,155,069
395,664
Markets across
30,076
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,626
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 2:44 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting whether one team will outscore the other by a specific margin in a designated quarter of a football game. Outcomes depend entirely on the point differential during that specific quarter of play.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between New Orleans and Baltimore during the second quarter of their scheduled game on September 20, 2026. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets 1-5 cover Baltimore winning by over 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, while markets 6-10 cover New Orleans winning by over 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward resolution, regardless of the final game outcome. If the winning team meets or exceeds the specified margin during that quarter, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, allowing for multiple outcomes depending on the exact point differential.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market allows traders to express their own beliefs about the likely outcome. You may find that this market’s implied probabilities diverge from those offered by sportsbooks, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly in events where public opinion is strong or there is significant uncertainty.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second quarter. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that spread occurring. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract that pays out $1 if the actual spread falls within the specified range.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final point spread for the second quarter of the New Orleans versus Baltimore game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and verifiable process. Traders will be able to see the winning spread and the payout for their contracts shortly after the game concludes.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, particularly the quarterback or key offensive contributors, could significantly shift the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest adverse conditions impacting the passing game, could also move the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions, or even significant shifts in public betting patterns, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.