TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 20, 1:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This market determines which team or scenario will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It allows participants to speculate on whether the New Orleans defense, the Baltimore defense, or neither team (resulting in no touchdown being scored first) will achieve this milestone.
The market resolves based on which side—either the New Orleans Saints defense (NO Saints D/ST), the Baltimore Ravens defense (BAL Ravens D/ST), or No Touchdown—scores the first touchdown in the professional football game scheduled for September 20, 2026. If a team’s defensive unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored during the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. For teams that are active but do not take a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a team takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the outcome is determined by whether they score the first touchdown. These rules ensure clarity and fairness in resolving the market based on in-game events and player participation.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, whereas this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that prediction market participants have access to information or insights not fully incorporated into the sportsbook's pricing. However, it's also possible that the sportsbook has a more accurate assessment, and the market will adjust accordingly over time.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing a 0% to 100% implied probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, the price increases, indicating growing confidence in that outcome. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. The market aggregates these individual beliefs to create a collective forecast for the first touchdown scorer.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player physically crossed the goal line for the first touchdown during the New Orleans versus Baltimore game. The official game statistics will be used to verify the outcome. Any potential disputes will be resolved based on the official game records and widely accepted football rules, ensuring a fair and transparent resolution process.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players for either the New Orleans or Baltimore teams would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the expected game plan and affect which players are favored to score. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or coaching strategies could lead to adjustments in trader sentiment and, consequently, the prices within this market.