TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 11, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Bettors assess the likelihood of one team securing a convincing victory over its opponent in a professional soccer contest. The decisive factor is the difference in goals scored, calculated after the regular match duration without extensions or penalty phases.
Markets resolve based on the goal differential in the New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven professional USL Championship soccer game scheduled for Sep 11, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Thresholds include New Mexico United winning by more than 2.5 or 1.5 goals, or Indy Eleven winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the victory margin surpasses the specified threshold, the relevant market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Kalshi clarifies it holds no official ties to the Governing League, and all trademarks are owned by their respective parties.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd versus the assessments of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market’s prices are driven by individuals willing to buy or sell based on their own analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. These differences can present opportunities for arbitrage, where traders capitalize on price variations between the two types of markets.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven match. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge towards a fair value, representing the aggregated beliefs of the participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and order book are visible on the platform, allowing traders to assess the available liquidity and potential price movements.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the New Mexico United vs Indy Eleven match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout of 100, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will receive nothing. This ensures a clear and objective resolution process.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Sep 12, 2026. News regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, weather conditions, or even significant shifts in public perception could all trigger price movements. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions might also impact the market. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning by the specified spread is likely to be reflected in the trading volume and price fluctuations of this market.