TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 12, 1:56 AM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between New Mexico United and Indy Eleven, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico United" if New Mexico United are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Indy Eleven" if Indy Eleven are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between New Mexico United and Indy Eleven, scheduled for September 11, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "New Mexico United" if New Mexico United are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "Indy Eleven" if Indy Eleven are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as an event approaches. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Polymarket allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, initial sportsbook lines can sometimes offer value before the prediction market fully incorporates all available information. It’s common to see the odds on this market converge with sportsbook lines as the event draws nearer, but differences can still emerge based on differing information weighting and participant biases.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares in New Mexico United scoring first, the price of those shares increases, and the implied probability rises. Conversely, increased selling pressure on Indy Eleven shares lowers their price and probability. This dynamic process establishes a market-driven assessment of the most likely scenario.
This market resolves around Sep 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first goal in the New Mexico United versus Indy Eleven match. The official match records will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. Any delays or postponements to the match may affect the resolution timeline, but the outcome will always be determined by the official result of the first goal scored in the game.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, particularly to key offensive players for either New Mexico United or Indy Eleven, would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also affect the perceived likelihood of each team scoring first. Additionally, any tactical announcements from the coaches, or even pre-game analysis from reputable sports commentators, could sway market sentiment and lead to price adjustments before Sep 12, 2026.