TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 11:36 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets focus on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will achieve certain passing completion thresholds in an upcoming football game. Outcomes depend strictly on the official play statistics recorded during the contest, with detailed provisions for handling scenarios where a player does not participate.
All markets resolve based on the official passing completions recorded by the named quarterback in the New England vs Seattle Professional Football game scheduled for Sep 9, 2026. If the quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual number of passing completions achieved during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds specified for each quarterback, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the completion target.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market is driven by traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likelihood of different outcomes. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Analyzing these differences can provide valuable insights into where the market finds value compared to the sportsbook’s initial assessment.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different completion totals. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that specific outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, reflecting growing confidence in that result. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to new information and changing expectations, providing a real-time assessment of the potential for various passing completion totals in the game.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official game statistics are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing completions achieved during the New England versus Seattle game will determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official statistics provided by the NFL and will be considered final once verified. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result and confirmation of market settlement.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries to quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions expected to affect passing games like heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift the market. Late-breaking news about team strategies or adjustments to offensive schemes could also impact trader sentiment and lead to price fluctuations in the NFL passing completions market.