TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 9:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which player will score the first touchdown in the New England vs Seattle professional football game. Currently, Kalshi gives DeMario Douglas a 32.0% probability of scoring first, while Romeo Doubs is at 18.0%. The market resolves based on whether Sam Darnold scores the first touchdown in the game, as determined by the official game record. Keep a close watch on the kickoff of the game on September 9, 2026, as the first scoring play will determine the outcome of this market, with resolution occurring by September 10, 2026.
Each market corresponds to a specific player from either team, with the outcome determined by whether that player scores the first touchdown of the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the player takes at least one snap—regardless of whether the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves based on whether they score the first touchdown. If no touchdowns are scored in the entire game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set their odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the collective predictions of many individuals. This can lead to prediction market prices being more accurate, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes offer value, particularly if they diverge significantly from the crowd’s expectations as expressed in this market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the probability of each player scoring the first touchdown. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to own one unit of probability for that outcome, and the total volume traded indicates the level of interest in that particular player. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently aggregate information and reflect the collective beliefs of traders.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player scored the first touchdown in the New England versus Seattle game. The official game statistics, as reported by a trusted sports data source, will be used to verify the outcome. Any scoring plays subject to review will be settled based on the final ruling of the game officials. The outcome will be clearly indicated on Kalshi following the conclusion of the game.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports are critical; if a key offensive player for either team is ruled out, their chances of scoring the first touchdown will decrease, shifting volume to other players. Pre-game news regarding weather conditions, such as strong winds or rain, could also influence the market, potentially favoring running backs over quarterbacks. Finally, any late-breaking news about team strategy or play-calling tendencies could cause traders to adjust their predictions and move prices in this market.