TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 4:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting whether specific quarterbacks will exceed certain passing yard thresholds in an upcoming football game. The outcomes depend entirely on the players' performance during the match, making it a straightforward test of athletic skill and strategy.
All markets resolve based on the total passing yards accumulated by the specified quarterback in the New England vs Jacksonville Pro Football game scheduled for Sep 27, 2026. If the named quarterback is active for the team but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once the quarterback takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves according to the actual passing yards recorded during the game. These rules apply uniformly across all thresholds for each named player, ensuring consistent evaluation regardless of the yardage benchmark set for each market.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their internal models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market relies on traders directly expressing their beliefs about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, potentially driving the prices closer together. However, it’s common to see differences, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts regarding the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual passing yards will fall within that range, as determined by the collective actions of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market efficiently incorporates all available information.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yardage total from the New England vs Jacksonville game, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the winning contract. The resolution will be based on the official statistics released by the NFL and will be considered final once verified. Traders holding the contract corresponding to the correct passing yardage range will receive a payout.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate strong winds or heavy rain, could also impact passing yardage expectations. Pre-game reports about defensive strategies or adjustments could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any significant public endorsements or analysis from prominent NFL experts could influence trading activity in this market.