TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It allows participants to speculate on whether a player will have multiple interceptions during the match. The outcome depends entirely on the players' accuracy and the defense's ability to capitalize on mistakes.
All markets in this event evaluate the number of passing interceptions recorded by either Trevor Lawrence or Drake Maye in the New England vs Jacksonville Pro Football game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold of interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) for each quarterback. If a quarterback is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price determined before the game starts. Once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that snap is nullified by a penalty—the market resolves strictly based on the actual number of passing interceptions recorded during the game. These rules ensure that markets reflect real-game performance while accounting for potential changes in player participation.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess probabilities. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities, particularly as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may initially set odds based on statistical models and expert analysis, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders responding to a wider range of factors, potentially including news, injuries, and even subtle shifts in public perception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing interceptions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective prediction of all participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement indicates the market's confidence in a particular outcome; a higher price suggests greater belief that the corresponding number of interceptions will occur. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final result and capitalizing on price discrepancies.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing interceptions thrown during the New England versus Jacksonville game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the resolution of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding the quarterbacks' health or playing status for either team would be a major catalyst. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to be adverse for passing, could also shift predictions. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies or key player matchups could influence trader sentiment. Finally, late-breaking injury reports or even in-game performance during the first half of the game could lead to substantial price movements in this market.