TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 2:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team or category will score the first touchdown in an upcoming football game. It includes possibilities for either of the competing teams' defense or special teams units to score first, as well as a scenario where no touchdown is scored at all during the game.
The event determines whether the Jacksonville Jaguars defense/special teams, the New England Patriots defense/special teams, or No Touchdown will score the first touchdown in the professional football game originally scheduled for September 27, 2026. If either defense/special teams unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either team’s offense, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other player markets resolve to No. For any team’s defense/special teams unit that is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. Once a unit takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on whether that unit scores the first touchdown. These rules ensure clarity in resolving outcomes based on actual game events and address edge cases such as inactive units or penalty-nullified plays.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a margin for profit. This market, however, allows individuals to trade based on their own insights, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of each player scoring first. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each player to score first, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of that player’s probability of success. As more people buy a contract, the price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand, with traders adjusting their positions based on news, injuries, or any other information they believe is relevant to the game. This creates a dynamic and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the outcome will be determined by which player officially scores the first touchdown in the New England versus Jacksonville game, as recorded by official game statistics. The resolution will be based on the official game results and will be verified against credible public sources. Trading will cease once the outcome is known and officially reported, finalizing the results of this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding player injuries to key offensive players on either team would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest heavy rain or wind, could also influence the market, as these conditions can affect passing and running games. Late-breaking news about team strategies or starting lineups, or even unexpected pre-game analysis from prominent sports commentators, could also lead to substantial price movements in this market as traders react to new information.