TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 27, 8:50 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either New England or Cleveland in the first quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between New England and Cleveland during the first quarter of play in their game scheduled for August 27, 2026. Each market specifies a unique threshold that must be surpassed by the winning team's score advantage for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. If the actual point differential meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the corresponding market resolves positively; otherwise, it resolves negatively. Only points scored within the first quarter count toward these determinations, and all markets operate independently of one another.
On Kalshi, traders in the 1st quarter spread market set odds based on their expectations for the opening quarter dynamics between the teams. Sportsbook lines, set by professional oddsmakers, often reflect broader public sentiment and historical data. This market may diverge due to real-time trader insights and sharper, in-play adjustments. For example, if early injury reports surface, Kalshi odds could shift faster than traditional sportsbook lines, offering a more responsive barometer of immediate risk and potential scoring margins in the first quarter.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to price contracts, aligning trader incentives with accurate probability estimates. The current implied chance reflects aggregated trader beliefs about which team will cover the spread in the first 15 minutes of play. Volume of $12,026 indicates interest levels, while recent 24-hour volume of $9,000 shows how actively participants are trading the outcome. Price fluctuations often follow key news, such as starter status updates or weather conditions affecting early-game strategies.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final score after the first quarter will determine whether the favorite or underdog covers the set spread, closing the market and settling all positions.
In the run-up to Aug 28, 2026, several factors could shift expectations in this market. Starting lineups, injury reports released hours before kickoff, and weather forecasts for game day are key drivers. Early pre-game betting trends on traditional platforms may also influence trader sentiment on Kalshi. If a star player is ruled out or a significant tactical change is announced, odds could adjust rapidly. Moreover, any last-minute coaching decisions impacting offensive strategies will be closely watched, as they directly affect likely scoring patterns in the opening quarter.