TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 26, 8:35 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory in the final quarter of a college football game between Nebraska and Michigan State. Each outcome represents a different point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the market to settle positively.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the fourth quarter of the Nebraska vs Michigan State college football game scheduled for September 26, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. For Nebraska-related markets, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if Nebraska wins the fourth quarter by exceeding the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). For Michigan State-related markets, a 'Yes' outcome occurs if Michigan State wins the fourth quarter by exceeding the specified point margin (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the official final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. As more people trade, the price tends to converge towards what many believe is the true probability of the outcome. It’s common to see discrepancies, particularly before significant news or events impact perceptions of the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring in the fourth quarter of the Nebraska vs Michigan State game. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those who misjudge the outcome risk losing their investment. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a market price that accurately reflects the collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the fourth quarter of the Nebraska vs Michigan State game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a trusted sports data source. The contract corresponding to the closest spread to the actual result will pay out $100, while all other contracts will settle to $0. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand the resolution of this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Nebraska or Michigan State teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they impact the style of play, could also affect trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also play a role. Finally, large volume trades from informed participants could shift the price, reflecting new information or a change in sentiment regarding the likely outcome of the game.