TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 11:00 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on determining the point differential in the third quarter of an upcoming football game between two teams. Each outcome represents a different threshold for how much one team might outscore the other during that specific quarter.
All markets resolve based solely on points scored during the third quarter of the designated game. A 'Yes' outcome occurs when the winning team exceeds the specified point margin outlined in each market's title. If no game occurs on the scheduled date, all markets are void. Only points scored in the third quarter count, regardless of the final full-game result. All markets are independent, meaning each resolves according to its own numerical threshold regardless of other market outcomes.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. It’s common to see this market move differently than sportsbook lines, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and discrepancies can occur due to differing methodologies and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Patriots-Seahawks 3rd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views may incur losses. This dynamic process results in a market-determined price that reflects the collective intelligence of the participants.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official result of the 3rd quarter spread in the Patriots-Seahawks game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official game statistics, and the market will settle based on whether the actual spread falls within the range of the contracts traded. Traders holding contracts on the correct side of the spread will receive a payout, while those on the incorrect side may incur a loss.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Patriots or the Seahawks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale could shift traders’ expectations. Public perception, as reflected in social media and expert analysis, can also play a role in driving price fluctuations in this market.