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OPEN INTEREST:
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405,232
Markets across
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MATCHED EVENTS:
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Closed: Sep 10, 12:25 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the SEA Seahawks will win the second half of the NE Patriots vs SEA Seahawks Pro Football game by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of the SEA Seahawks winning the 2nd half by over 2.5 points is 99.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by the point differential in the second half (excluding overtime) of the game, as defined by the official game results. Keep an eye on the game itself, as this market will resolve based on the outcome of the NE Patriots vs SEA Seahawks game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026, with final settlement expected by the resolution date of 2026-09-10.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential in the second half of the designated NFL game between the NE Patriots and SEA Seahawks, excluding any overtime periods. Each market specifies a different threshold for the winning team's margin of victory: markets 1-8 cover SEA Seahawks winning by margins greater than 13.5, 10.5, 9.5, 7.5, 6.5, 4.5, 3.5, and 2.5 points respectively; markets 9-15 cover NE Patriots winning by margins greater than 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 6.5, 7.5, 9.5, and 10.5 points respectively. If the specified team meets or exceeds the stated margin in the second half, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the consistent secondary rule that only points scored during the second half (excluding overtime) are considered for resolution.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates a broader range of information and opinions from traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing risk assessments, public biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to news and events, potentially leading to odds that diverge from, or converge with, those offered by sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the second half spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, creating a dynamic and real-time forecast of the game's outcome. Traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the final spread and capitalizing on price movements.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point differential in the second half of the Patriots-Seahawks game will be used to determine which contracts payout. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and transparent outcome. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual second half spread.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in weather conditions, or significant shifts in public perception could all lead to price movements. Unexpected coaching decisions or in-game performance during the first half could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, large-volume trades by individual participants or institutional investors could create short-term volatility and influence the price of contracts related to the NFL second half spread.