TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 10:13 PM EST
Kalshi
This market asks whether the New England Patriots will win the first half of their game against the Seattle Seahawks by more than 2.5 points. Currently, the probability of this outcome occurring on Kalshi is 99.0%. The resolution source for this market is the outcome of the first half of the NE Patriots vs SEA Seahawks Pro Football game originally scheduled for Sep 9, 2026. Keep an eye on the game itself, as this market will resolve based on the first-half result and will be finalized by the resolution date of September 10, 2026.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks at the end of the first half of the game scheduled for September 9, 2026. For markets where the Seattle Seahawks are the designated winner, the market resolves to Yes if Seattle's score exceeds the opponent's score by more than the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 13.5 points). Conversely, for markets where the New England Patriots are the designated winner, the market resolves to Yes if New England's score exceeds the opponent's score by more than the specified threshold (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5 points). No other factors, such as total game outcome or second-half performance, influence the resolution. Only points scored during the first half are considered, and all markets operate independently, meaning each threshold must be evaluated separately against the actual half-time score differential.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals expressing their true beliefs about the outcome. You may find that this market incorporates information and analysis not immediately reflected in sportsbook lines, potentially offering a different perspective on the likelihood of various first-half spread scenarios. However, as game time approaches, the two may converge as more information becomes available and public sentiment solidifies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the first half. The price of each contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome, as their profits depend on correctly assessing the likelihood of each spread. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of those trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Sep 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the actual first-half spread of the Patriots-Seahawks game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game’s governing body. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout of $1 per contract, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will receive $0. The final spread will be determined by the point difference at the end of the first half.
Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries to either the Patriots or the Seahawks would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team morale could also shift perceptions. Finally, large-volume trades from informed participants could signal new information entering the market and cause the price to adjust accordingly.