TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 3:01 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for the NE Patriots versus JAC Jaguars during the second quarter of their scheduled game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome, allowing participants to assess varying levels of dominance in that quarter.
The markets resolve based on the point differential between the NE Patriots and JAC Jaguars exclusively during the second quarter of the game scheduled for September 27, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: if the winning team exceeds that threshold by more than the stated points, the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' If the winning team's margin is equal to or less than the threshold, the market resolves to 'No.' All markets are confined to points scored in the second quarter only, with no consideration for points from any other quarter. The outcome is determined solely by the numerical difference in points between the two teams during that specific quarter.
Generally, prediction markets like this one often reflect information beyond what’s captured in traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and public perception, but this market incorporates the wisdom of the crowd, allowing traders to react to news and insights that might not be immediately reflected elsewhere. While sportsbooks may initially have different odds, they tend to converge as the event approaches, with prediction markets sometimes proving more accurate in forecasting the final result. It’s a valuable comparison point for anyone following the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders set the odds by placing buy and sell orders for contracts. The price of a contract reflects the probability of a particular outcome occurring – in this case, the Jaguars winning the second quarter by over 6.5 points. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders express their beliefs, the price fluctuates, providing a dynamic assessment of the likely spread. The current price represents the collective wisdom of the crowd participating in this market, and is influenced by factors like recent team performance and injury reports.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second quarter spread of the Patriots versus Jaguars game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official result, as reported by sports data providers, will determine whether the Jaguars won the second quarter by more than 6.5 points, or if the Patriots covered the spread. The platform will then settle all outstanding contracts based on this verified result, ensuring a transparent and accurate outcome for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the NE Patriots or the JAC Jaguars would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s style of play, could also impact the market. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic shifts announced before the game could also shift trader sentiment. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding team morale or internal conflicts could also contribute to price fluctuations in this market.