TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 27, 1:52 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets evaluate how many points the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars will score together in the first quarter of their upcoming football game. Each market has a different threshold for the total points needed to settle as 'Yes'. Only points scored in the first quarter count toward the outcome.
These markets assess whether the combined first-quarter scoring by both teams exceeds specified thresholds. Each market features a unique point total threshold—ranging from just over three points to more than twenty-four points—that must be surpassed for the market to resolve as 'Yes'. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the first quarter of play, with no credit given for scoring in later quarters. The outcome hinges solely on the aggregate first-quarter performance of both teams against each threshold, independent of the full-game result or any other contextual factors.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, especially before significant events or when public sentiment strongly favors one outcome. While sportsbooks may initially react to news, this market can quickly incorporate new information as traders adjust their positions, potentially leading to a more accurate forecast.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether the total points in the first quarter will be over or under a specific number. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, creating a dynamic and real-time assessment of the event’s potential. This process allows the market to aggregate diverse opinions and generate a probabilistic forecast.
This market resolves around Sep 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official total points scored in the first quarter of the NE Patriots vs JAC Jaguars game, as reported by official league sources. The market will determine whether the total points exceeded or fell short of the threshold established when the market was created. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding key player injuries for either the Patriots or Jaguars would likely cause significant movement, as this impacts expected scoring. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift the market, as they affect the game's style and potential point totals. Late-breaking news about coaching strategies or changes in team lineups could also play a role. Even significant shifts in public sentiment, driven by media coverage or social media trends, can influence trading activity and move the price.