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NE Patriots vs BUF Bills: Spread
kalshi

What is the result of NE Patriots vs BUF Bills?

Volume:
$6,117,856

NE Patriots wins by over 2.5 points

 - Kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 2.5 points - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 4, 2026

Closed: Oct 4, 4:15 PM EST

kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 2.5 points

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$255,692
N/A
N/A
$116,671
Settled
Yes
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 1.5 points

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$187,510
N/A
N/A
$78,180
Settled
Yes
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 6.5 points

View
0%
52%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,471,116
N/A
N/A
$1,795,283
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 7.5 points

View
0%
45%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,035,197
N/A
N/A
$778,369
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 3.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$452,603
N/A
N/A
$238,887
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 2.5 points

View
0%
70%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$412,071
N/A
N/A
$180,395
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 9.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$229,929
N/A
N/A
$127,189
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 4.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$205,131
N/A
N/A
$121,721
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 5.5 points

View
0%
57%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$193,715
N/A
N/A
$120,451
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 1.5 points

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126,613
N/A
N/A
$79,819
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 10.5 points

View
0%
37%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$113,321
N/A
N/A
$85,474
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 3.5 points

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$72,576
N/A
N/A
$47,151
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 6.5 points

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$59,024
N/A
N/A
$37,517
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 20.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,300
N/A
N/A
$31,099
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 27.5 points

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,814
N/A
N/A
$29,699
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 13.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,224
N/A
N/A
$29,180
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 23.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,685
N/A
N/A
$23,116
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 5.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$27,653
N/A
N/A
$17,967
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 9.5 points

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,431
N/A
N/A
$25,037
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 4.5 points

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,080
N/A
N/A
$15,148
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 17.5 points

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,788
N/A
N/A
$10,406
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 7.5 points

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,615
N/A
N/A
$11,031
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 13.5 points

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,603
N/A
N/A
$11,610
Settled
No
kalshi

BUF Bills wins by over 14.5 points

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,639
N/A
N/A
$11,610
Settled
No
kalshi

NE Patriots wins by over 10.5 points

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,531
N/A
N/A
$9,616
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Intro

This market asks whether the Buffalo Bills will win their game against the New England Patriots by more than 1.5 points. Currently, the probability of the Bills winning by over 1.5 points on Kalshi is 51.0%, while the probability of them winning by over 2.5 points is 46.0%. The market will resolve based on the outcome of the NE Patriots vs BUF Bills Pro Football game, as determined by the final point differential. Keep an eye on the game itself, scheduled for October 4, 2026, as that date represents the end of the betting period and will determine the market’s resolution.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the point differential of the NE Patriots vs BUF Bills Pro Football game scheduled for Oct 4, 2026. If the named team achieves a victory by exceeding the specified point margin, the respective market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Markets are structured to cover a range of outcomes from narrow wins (e.g., over 1.5 points) to decisive victories (e.g., over 27.5 points), allowing for granular speculation on the game's result. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NFL spread market tracks the current odds reflecting the expected point difference in the NE Patriots vs BUF Bills game. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $5,085,067. Total volume for this market is $6,117,856. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe the spread will land, offering a dynamic assessment of the game’s anticipated outcome.

Typically, prediction market odds closely mirror those found at sportsbooks, but subtle differences can emerge. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. If a significant discrepancy appears between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate differing opinions on the likely game outcome. It's common to see prediction markets reflect public sentiment more accurately, as they are less influenced by the sportsbook's need to profit from both sides of a bet.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a specific spread, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to aggregate information and produce a collective forecast. The current price reflects the wisdom of the crowd participating in this market.

This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the NE Patriots vs BUF Bills game, as reported by a trusted sports data source. The market will settle to 100 if the actual spread matches the contract price, and proportionally less if it differs. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or cover their losses once the resolution is finalized.

Several factors could influence this market before the game concludes. News regarding key player injuries for either the NE Patriots or the BUF Bills would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also shift the odds. Unexpected announcements about coaching strategies or team dynamics might also impact trader sentiment. Finally, large volume trades on Kalshi itself can create short-term price fluctuations as traders react to new information or adjust their positions.