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NCAA Tournament: National Champion Seed
polymarket
kalshi

NCAA Tournament: National Champion Seed

Volume:
$283,898,089

Michigan

 - Kalshi

Michigan - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Closed: Apr 7, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Michigan

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$38,713,335
N/A
N/A
$21,203,834
Settled
Yes
polymarket

1

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

UConn

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$60,958,451
N/A
N/A
$34,583,227
Settled
No
kalshi

Arizona

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,478,475
N/A
N/A
$11,101,366
Settled
No
kalshi

Duke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,238,871
N/A
N/A
$7,764,812
Settled
No
kalshi

UCLA

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,487,832
N/A
N/A
$10,095,774
Settled
No
kalshi

Illinois

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,794,834
N/A
N/A
$6,616,571
Settled
No
kalshi

Arkansas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,889,579
N/A
N/A
$8,762,983
Settled
No
kalshi

St. John's

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,474,643
N/A
N/A
$7,662,514
Settled
No
kalshi

Houston

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,959,355
N/A
N/A
$6,648,675
Settled
No
kalshi

Purdue

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,984,713
N/A
N/A
$6,027,071
Settled
No
kalshi

Michigan St.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,833,887
N/A
N/A
$6,855,301
Settled
No
kalshi

Tennessee

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,098,364
N/A
N/A
$5,846,778
Settled
No
kalshi

Iowa St.

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,070,259
N/A
N/A
$4,925,403
Settled
No
kalshi

Vanderbilt

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,968,764
N/A
N/A
$5,665,800
Settled
No
kalshi

Alabama

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,960,956
N/A
N/A
$6,059,214
Settled
No
kalshi

Florida

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,538,572
N/A
N/A
$4,832,971
Settled
No
kalshi

Iowa

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,324,068
N/A
N/A
$4,665,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Nebraska

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,281,185
N/A
N/A
$4,412,396
Settled
No
kalshi

Kansas

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,592,318
N/A
N/A
$3,853,807
Settled
No
kalshi

Gonzaga

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,352,911
N/A
N/A
$3,901,115
Settled
No
kalshi

Virginia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,049,244
N/A
N/A
$3,499,525
Settled
No
kalshi

Wisconsin

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,979,820
N/A
N/A
$3,820,801
Settled
No
kalshi

BYU

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,816,599
N/A
N/A
$3,586,633
Settled
No
kalshi

Texas Tech

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,827,605
N/A
N/A
$2,287,147
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 129

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seed number of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament champion equals the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament is cancelled, postponed after April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no champion declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NCAA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi resolve on fundamentally different event scopes: Polymarket settles on seed number of the 2026 NCAA Tournament champion, while Kalshi settles on specific team identity for the 2025-26 season champion. These are incompatible resolution frameworks—Polymarket's seed-based markets cannot be reconciled with Kalshi's team-specific markets because seed assignment is unknown until tournament selection and varies by year.Hero tip: Do not cross-trade between Polymarket and Kalshi in this group. A YES on Polymarket (e.g., '5 seed wins') does not map to any specific Kalshi market, and vice versa. Polymarket bets on seed outcomes; Kalshi bets on team outcomes. The platforms are measuring different dimensions of the same tournament and cannot be arbitraged together.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on the seed number of the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament champion. Markets are structured as 'Will a [X] seed win the 2026 Men's NCAA Tournament?' with resolution tied to seed assignment at tournament time, not team identity. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if the seed number of the 2026 Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament champion equals the listed number.'
  • Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on specific team identity as the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion. Each market is structured as 'If [Team Name] is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.' Resolution is tied to which team wins, regardless of seed assignment. Key quote: 'If [Team] is the 2025-26 Division 1 Men's College Basketball National Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.