TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 19, 4:37 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either NC State or Vanderbilt in the second half of their upcoming college football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded by the winning team in the second half alone, including any overtime periods.
The markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the NC State versus Vanderbilt college football game scheduled for September 19, 2026. For markets where Vanderbilt is the designated winner, resolution occurs if Vanderbilt's second-half point total exceeds the opponent's by more than the specified margin. Conversely, markets designating NC State as the winner resolve if NC State's second-half points surpass Vanderbilt's by the stated threshold. All markets exclusively consider points scored during the second half and overtime; first-half scores are irrelevant. If the game is postponed but commences within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, markets remain active and resolve according to the final official result. Should the game fail to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific outcome thresholds.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially as the event approaches. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, there can be initial discrepancies. Sportsbooks may react more quickly to breaking news, while this market’s price adjusts as traders incorporate new information and refine their predictions. It’s common to see convergence as the event draws nearer.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall in that range. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as they profit from correctly predicting the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth and volume indicate the level of confidence and agreement among traders regarding the likely spread. As more trades occur, the price tends to become a more refined estimate of the true probability.
This market resolves around Sep 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the NC State vs Vanderbilt game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by a trusted sports data source. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive a payout, while those on incorrect spreads will not.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the NC State or Vanderbilt teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also shift the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies or coaching decisions could cause traders to reassess their predictions. Public perception and betting trends, as reflected in sportsbook odds, can also indirectly influence trading activity in this market.