TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 9, 8:45 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a baseball game between the NC Dinos and the Kia Tigers, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many runs separate the winning and losing teams when the game concludes. Different thresholds define various possible outcomes.
The event covers a baseball match between the NC Dinos and Kia Tigers scheduled for September 9, 2026. Four distinct outcomes are evaluated based on the run differential at the game's conclusion. If the Kia Tigers win by more than 2.5 runs, the first market resolves to Yes. If the Kia Tigers win by more than 1.5 runs—but not exceeding 2.5—the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if the NC Dinos win by more than 1.5 runs, the third market resolves to Yes. Finally, if the NC Dinos win by more than 2.5 runs, the fourth market resolves to Yes. Each outcome is mutually exclusive, and only one can resolve to Yes depending on the final score. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market incorporates the diverse perspectives of many traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between the two, arbitrage opportunities may arise, as traders attempt to profit from the mispricing. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities of an event occurring, and both are subject to change as new information becomes available.
This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread – the difference in runs between the NC Dinos and the Kia Tigers – will be compared to the contract spreads offered on Kalshi. The contracts corresponding to the correct spread will pay out $1.00, while those representing incorrect spreads will expire worthless. Traders should monitor official game results to understand the final outcome and the resulting payouts.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, starting pitcher changes, or weather forecasts could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected performance in preceding games by either the NC Dinos or the Kia Tigers could also impact the market. Furthermore, major announcements about team strategies or coaching decisions could lead to adjustments in the perceived probabilities. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential price swings before Sep 9, 2026.