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402,751

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NBA Summer League: Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat NBA Summer League game?

Volume:
$165,792

Over 179.5 points scored

 - Kalshi

Over 179.5 points scored - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 5:24 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Over 179.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$39,297
N/A
N/A
$20,161
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NBA Summer League: Orlando Magic vs. Miami Heat

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,286
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 176.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,928
N/A
N/A
$2,520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 170.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,002
N/A
N/A
$739
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 167.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$782
N/A
N/A
$661
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 173.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$755
N/A
N/A
$571
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 164.5 points scored

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$298
N/A
N/A
$298
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Over 188.5 points scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$54,025
N/A
N/A
$20,669
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 185.5 points scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,172
N/A
N/A
$10,807
Settled
No
kalshi

Over 182.5 points scored

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,247
N/A
N/A
$7,708
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group covers an NBA Summer League game between the Orlando Magic and Miami Heat scheduled for July 11, 2026 at 3:30 PM ET. Polymarket offers a binary winner-take-all market, while Kalshi provides a series of over/under markets on combined team scoring at various thresholds.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Market Type Divergence: Polymarket resolves on binary match outcome (winner), while Kalshi resolves on aggregate scoring thresholds. These measure different settlement values and cannot be unified.Hero tip: Do not treat these as hedges or related bets. Polymarket determines the winner; Kalshi determines total points. A team can win with low scoring or lose with high scoring. Confirm your prediction target before trading. Also, Kalshi's postponement and cancellation rules are not explicitly stated—clarify with the platform if game delays occur.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Binary winner market. Resolves to Orlando Magic or Miami Heat based on final score including overtime. Postponed games remain open; canceled games with no makeup resolve 50-50. Source: NBA.com Summer League official results.
  • Kalshi: Nine separate over/under markets on combined team points at thresholds: 164.5, 167.5, 170.5, 173.5, 176.5, 179.5, 182.5, 185.5, 188.5. Each resolves Yes if combined score exceeds threshold. No explicit postponement or cancellation rules stated.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NBA Summer League game, scheduled for July 11 at 3:30PM ET: If the Orlando Magic win, the market will resolve to "Orlando Magic". If the Miami Heat win, the market will resolve to "Miami Heat". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

This event contains multiple markets based on the combined final score of the Miami vs Orlando Pro Basketball Summer League game scheduled for July 11, 2026. Each market establishes a specific point total threshold (164.5, 167.5, 170.5, 173.5, 176.5, 179.5, 182.5, 185.5, and 188.5 points). A market resolves to Yes if the sum of points scored by both teams exceeds the designated threshold for that particular market. The resolution is determined by the official final score recorded at the conclusion of the game, including any overtime periods if applicable. All thresholds are evaluated independently, meaning a game result may resolve multiple markets to Yes if the final combined score surpasses multiple thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates prediction market activity across Polymarket and Kalshi for the Magic vs. Heat Summer League matchup. Traders on both venues are pricing outcomes related to this preseason contest, with combined volume of $165,792 across all linked markets. The dashboard displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and consensus forecasts, allowing you to compare how each platform's community is positioning ahead of tipoff. You can track individual market performance, monitor shifts in trader sentiment, and identify divergences between venues as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to risk their own capital on, creating a direct financial incentive for accuracy. Unlike sportsbooks, which set lines to balance action and extract a margin, prediction markets aggregate distributed knowledge from many participants competing for profit. This market's odds may move faster or slower than traditional sportsbooks depending on trader activity, news flow, and the size of positions being taken. Both sources offer value, but prediction markets often reveal what informed traders genuinely believe will happen, unfiltered by bookmaker margins or liability management.

Key catalysts include injury reports or roster changes for either team, updated player availability, and any official league announcements affecting the matchup. Preseason momentum, recent performance in earlier Summer League games, and lineup adjustments by coaching staff can shift trader sentiment significantly. Public betting action and sharp money flowing into one side may also trigger price movement as the game approaches. Media coverage, expert commentary, and social sentiment around player performance or team chemistry could influence how traders reassess probabilities in the final hours before tipoff.