TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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NBA Summer League: Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Celtics vs. Hornets NBA Summer League game?

Volume:
$1,185,577

Boston

 - Kalshi

Boston - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 7:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Boston

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$533,791
N/A
N/A
$286,201
Settled
Yes
polymarket

NBA Summer League: Boston Celtics vs. Charlotte Hornets

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$76,071
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Charlotte

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$575,715
N/A
N/A
$361,514
Settled
No
Total markets: 3

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the NBA Summer League game between the Boston Celtics and Charlotte Hornets scheduled for July 12, 2026. Aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket, the consensus probability that Boston wins is 85.0%. Resolution will be determined by the final score of the game on July 12, 2026, including overtime if necessary. Watch for the game tip-off at 5:00 PM ET on July 12, 2026, as the live result will directly determine market settlement.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's binary Yes/No framework contains a logical contradiction where both possible game outcomes (Boston win or Charlotte win) resolve to Yes, leaving the No outcome undefined and making the market fundamentally unresolvable as structured.Hero tip: Do not rely on Kalshi's resolution logic as written. Polymarket's structure is sound: Boston Celtics win = resolve to Boston Celtics, Charlotte Hornets win = resolve to Charlotte Hornets, game canceled with no makeup = 50-50 split. Use Polymarket as your settlement reference and escalate Kalshi's malformed logic to platform support.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market with contradictory logic: 'If Boston wins...resolves to Yes' and 'If Charlotte wins...resolves to Yes' leaves No outcome undefined. This creates an impossible resolution state.
  • Polymarket: Winner-Take-All categorical resolution: resolves to Boston Celtics if Boston wins, Charlotte Hornets if Charlotte wins. Explicit edge case handling: postponement keeps market open; cancellation with no makeup triggers 50-50 split. Resolution based on final score including overtime.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

In the upcoming NBA Summer League game, scheduled for July 12 at 5:00PM ET: If the Boston Celtics win, the market will resolve to "Boston Celtics". If the Charlotte Hornets win, the market will resolve to "Charlotte Hornets". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the outcome of the Charlotte vs Boston Pro Basketball Summer League game scheduled for July 12, 2026. Resolution occurs when either Boston or Charlotte wins the game.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi derive odds directly from trader activity and real-money positions, whereas traditional sportsbooks set lines based on risk management and betting volume targets. Prediction market prices often reflect longer-term conviction and aggregate information from many independent participants, while sportsbook odds may adjust more frequently to balance action. Both can diverge significantly, especially early in an event cycle, making side-by-side comparison useful for identifying which venue offers better value on this matchup.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites, leading to natural price variation. Polymarket and Kalshi also operate under distinct contract specifications and settlement rules, which can influence how traders price uncertainty. Arbitrage opportunities between the two venues may persist if one platform has lower volume or if traders on one side have stronger conviction, making cross-platform monitoring valuable for identifying mispricings.

Roster announcements, player injuries, or last-minute lineup changes for either team can significantly shift odds on this matchup. Preseason performance reports, coaching decisions, and trading activity involving key players may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any official updates to the game schedule or venue could trigger repricing. Real-time news flow and social media discussion around player development or team strategy often precede measurable odds movement in Summer League markets.