TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Navarro vs Kostyuk
kalshi
predict
limitless

Who will win Navarro vs Kostyuk?

Volume:
$1,615,343

Marta Kostyuk

 - Kalshi

Marta Kostyuk - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 8:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Marta Kostyuk

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$686,148
N/A
N/A
$477,654
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Emma Navarro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$926,682
N/A
N/A
$591,163
Settled
No
predict

Wimbledon WTA: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk

View
N/A
N/A
—
$300
$2,508
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
limitless

Wimbledon: Emma Navarro vs Marta Kostyuk

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
0¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the professional tennis match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk in the 2026 Wimbledon Women's Singles Round of 32. Across Kalshi, Predict, and Limitless, the consensus probability that Kostyuk wins is 71.0%. Resolution is determined by the official result of the match as played on July 3, 2026, with the betting period closing on July 5, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's requirement that a ball must be played before resolution creates ambiguity for walkovers and pre-match withdrawals, while Predict and Limitless provide explicit handling of these scenarios with different outcomes.Hero tip: If a walkover or pre-match withdrawal occurs, Kalshi may not resolve, Predict will resolve to 50-50, and Limitless will resolve to the advancing player. Clarify Kalshi's intent with the platform before match day. Prefer Predict or Limitless for clarity on edge cases.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if either Emma Navarro or Marta Kostyuk wins after a ball has been played. The phrase 'after a ball has been played' suggests walkovers and pre-match withdrawals may not trigger resolution. Key quote: 'If Emma Navarro wins...after a ball has been played, then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Predict: Resolves to the advancing player if match begins but is not completed due to retirement/default/disqualification. Walkovers (pre-match withdrawal) resolve to 50-50. Cancellations and delays beyond 7 days also resolve to 50-50. Key quote: 'If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50.'
  • Limitless: Resolves to the declared winner in all scenarios, including walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification. No 50-50 outcomes. Key quote: 'For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

This event covers the professional tennis match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk in the 2026 Wimbledon Women Singles Round of 32, with resolution contingent on a ball being played. The market resolves to Yes for whichever player wins the match. If the match does not occur before play begins due to injury, walkover, forfeiture, or other cancellation, the market resolves to a fair price per standard rules. Should the match be postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes following the rescheduled match completion within two weeks.

Predict

This market refers to the tennis match between Emma Navarro and Marta Kostyuk in the Wimbledon WTA, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Emma Navarro' if Emma Navarro advances against Marta Kostyuk. This market will resolve to 'Marta Kostyuk' if Marta Kostyuk advances against Emma Navarro. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Emma Navarro" if Emma Navarro defeats Marta Kostyuk in their Wimbledon match originally scheduled for July 3, 2026, 09:03 UTC. It will resolve to "Marta Kostyuk" if Marta Kostyuk defeats Emma Navarro. For the purposes of this market, a player officially declared the winner of the match will be considered to have defeated the opponent, including in cases of walkover, retirement, withdrawal, default, or disqualification.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Predict operate on peer-to-peer pricing: traders themselves set odds by buying and selling shares, rather than a sportsbook posting fixed lines. This crowd-sourced mechanism often reflects real-time information faster than traditional books, especially for niche or volatile events. Sportsbooks, by contrast, manage risk and profit margins through fixed spreads and limits. For this match, comparing prediction market consensus to major sportsbook lines can reveal whether professional oddsmakers and retail traders agree on player probabilities, or whether one side is pricing in information the other has missed.

Kalshi and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct rules, fee structures, and user demographics. Kalshi may attract traders focused on regulatory-compliant U.S. markets, while Predict draws a broader international audience. Liquidity depth, order-book dynamics, and the timing of major news (injuries, form shifts, draw announcements) can cause temporary price gaps. Additionally, different settlement interpretations or verification timelines may lead traders to hedge differently on each venue. Savvy traders monitor these spreads and exploit them through cross-platform arbitrage until prices converge.

Key catalysts include injury announcements or withdrawal news affecting either player's fitness or participation. Recent tournament results, ranking changes, and head-to-head record updates can shift trader confidence. Draw announcements and seeding adjustments may also influence perceived difficulty of the matchup. Court surface preference, weather forecasts closer to the event date, and betting volume spikes from professional syndicates can trigger sharp price moves. Social media momentum and expert commentary may sway retail traders, creating volatility independent of fundamental match factors.