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328,628

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3,039

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5

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Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 24?
Commodities
kalshi
polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on August 24?

Total volume:
$10,312
Volume 24h:
$160
90%
Liquidity:
$21
0%
Open interest:
$7,601
2%

Above $1.499

 - Kalshi

Above $1.499 - Kalshi

100%

+0%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

98%98.5%99%99.5%

No volume data

Aug 14

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Vol.

$0.0

·

Resolves Aug 31, 2026

Time left: 10d:00h:31m

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Description

This event group determines whether natural gas prices will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to the previous trading day's close. The markets differ in their specific settlement criteria and reference points for determining the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in settlement dates and price referencesHero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets with different underlying assumptions. The Polymarket contract reflects short-term price movement between trading days, while the Kalshi contract reflects a specific price threshold on a different date.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Compares Active Month Natural Gas futures close price on August 24, 2026 to the close price on the most recent prior trading day. Resolves to Up if higher, Down if lower, 50-50 if equal or no trading.
  • Kalshi: Checks if the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for natural gas on August 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT is above any of 40 threshold values (starting at 0.999 USD/MMBtu). All thresholds resolving above resolving to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 24, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas (NG) futures on August 24, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, if the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, the market will resolve 50-50. For the purposes of this market, trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading hours schedule for the underlying market. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours. Per CME contract specifications for Natural Gas (NG) futures, the last trading day is defined as the third last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month. The active month changes at the start of the second trading session prior to that contract's last trading session, at which point the next listed contract becomes the active month (i.e., for the final three trading sessions of the nearest listed contract, the contract for the next month is the active month). The trading session for a given business day typically begins at 6:00 PM ET on the prior calendar date. For example, if the last business day of the month preceding the contract's delivery month is a Thursday, the last trading session is the session for the prior Tuesday, and the next listed contract becomes the active month at the start of the trading session for the Friday of the previous week (6:00 PM ET on Thursday), assuming a standard trading calendar. Both closing prices will reference the same underlying contract, specifically the contract that is considered the Active Month at the end of the trading session on the specified date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official settlement price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the underlying market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures available at https://pythdata.app/explore?search=NGD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the closing price of the natural gas 1-minute candlestick at 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2026. Each market has a unique threshold price; if the closing price exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to 'Yes.' Settlement uses the nearest listed contract month, switching to the next contract five business days before the current contract's last trading day. Contracts are named by delivery month, not expiration date, and prices are rounded to three decimal places. The closing price is determined at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval (e.g., the 4:59 PM candlestick closes at 5:00 PM). If data for the specified time is unavailable, the most recent published data is used for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the natural gas price movement market aggregates data from multiple venues, giving you a live view of how traders across platforms see the likelihood of price changes. It shows consensus odds, volume of $10,312, and recent trends, letting you compare expectations in real time. Because this market is followed on several prediction hubs, the dashboard helps you spot where agreement or disagreement lies among Polymarket and Kalshi users.

On Kalshi, this market may show a different angle than Polymarket because user bases and liquidity can vary, leading to price adjustments based on distinct trading patterns. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, regional participation, different market open times, or recent news flow unique to one venue can widen the gap between the two platforms. The spread of 2.0 often reflects these platform-specific dynamics.

This market resolves around Aug 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch closing prices from reliable sources at the specified time, and the result will be settled based on that snapshot. The process ensures an objective, transparent close for all participants.

Key signals that could shift this market include weekly storage reports, unexpected supply disruptions, and extreme weather forecasts affecting production or demand. Any sudden change in inventory levels or regional heating/cooling demand can reshape trader expectations quickly. Monitoring these indicators will help you anticipate possible swings in odds before Aug 31, 2026.