TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$130,522,377

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,438,389,636

404,028

Markets across

30,214

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,681

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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NASCAR Hollywood Casino 400 : Fastest Lap
kalshi

Who will have the fastest lap?

Volume:
$4,676

Kyle Larson

 - Kalshi

Kyle Larson - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 27, 2026

Closed: Sep 27, 6:55 PM EST

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Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Kyle Larson

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,338
N/A
N/A
$2,208
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cody Ware

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$767
N/A
N/A
$767
Settled
No
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$467
N/A
N/A
$467
Settled
No
kalshi

Joey Logano

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$401
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$310
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Reddick

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$161
N/A
N/A
$161
Settled
No
kalshi

Carson Hocevar

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$103
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
kalshi

Christopher Bell

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
No
kalshi

William Byron

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23
N/A
N/A
$23
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$17
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Elliott

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
No
kalshi

Alex Bowman

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

John H. Nemechek

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Daniel Suárez

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Cole Custer

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Noah Gragson

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Shane Van Gisbergen

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Zane Smith

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Austin Cindric

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chris Buescher

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Dillon

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Brad Keselowski

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Preece

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 36

Description

This market focuses on determining which driver achieves the fastest lap time during the NASCAR Cup Series 2026 Hollywood Casino 400 race. The outcome depends solely on official race results, with specific conditions for ties, disqualifications, and race cancellations affecting payouts.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on whether the specified driver records the fastest valid lap time during the main race of the NASCAR Cup Series 2026 Hollywood Casino 400. If the driver achieves this, the market settles as 'Yes'; otherwise, it settles as 'No'. If the driver retires, is disqualified, or is not classified as a finisher, the market resolves as 'No'. In the event of a tie for the fastest lap among two or more drivers, 'Yes' positions receive a payout of $1 divided by the number of tied competitors (rounded down to the nearest cent), while 'No' positions receive the remainder (1 minus the 'Yes' payout). If the race is postponed but starts within 48 hours of its original schedule, the market remains open and resolves based on the final official results. If the race is canceled or does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, all markets resolve to a fair price. All determinations are based on official NASCAR results, not provisional data.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the NASCAR fastest lap market tracks the current price of contracts representing each driver’s likelihood of achieving the fastest lap during the Hollywood Casino 400. You can view the price history, which shows how the market has valued different outcomes over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,261, and the total volume traded to date, which is $4,676. This allows traders to gauge market interest and potential liquidity for the NASCAR fastest lap market.

Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from sportsbook odds, which are often set by analysts. Sportsbooks may initially set odds based on pre-race analysis and historical performance, while this market incorporates real-time information and the collective predictions of many traders. Discrepancies can arise due to differing opinions on driver form, weather conditions, or even late-breaking news. It's common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than traditional sportsbook lines, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of each driver's chances.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, following the completion of the Hollywood Casino 400 race. The outcome will be determined by the official race results, specifically which driver records the fastest single lap time during the event. The fastest lap will be verified against credible public reporting from official NASCAR sources. The contract corresponding to the driver with the fastest lap will pay out $100, while all other contracts will expire at $0. Traders should monitor the race results to understand the final outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding driver health, mechanical issues with cars, or changes to team strategy would likely cause price fluctuations. Weather forecasts are also crucial, as rain or changing track conditions can dramatically alter race dynamics and driver performance. Unexpected qualifying results could also shift the probabilities, as starting position often influences a driver’s ability to contend for the fastest lap. Finally, any significant updates on tire compounds or aerodynamic adjustments could also move this market as traders reassess each driver’s potential.