TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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NASCAR: Cook Out Southern 500 Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win NASCAR Cook Out Southern 500?

Volume:
$4,406,707

Christopher Bell

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 6, 10:04 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Christopher Bell

View
100%
93%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$421,571
N/A
N/A
$280,247
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Christopher Bell

100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
19¢
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kyle Larson

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$358,522
N/A
N/A
$214,626
Settled
No
polymarket

Kyle Larson

0%
81%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Briscoe

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$337,326
N/A
N/A
$229,238
Settled
No
polymarket

Chase Briscoe

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tyler Reddick

0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$325,191
N/A
N/A
$239,189
Settled
No
polymarket

Tyler Reddick

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Denny Hamlin

0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$299,620
N/A
N/A
$259,398
Settled
No
polymarket

Denny Hamlin

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ty Gibbs

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$244,841
N/A
N/A
$191,182
Settled
No
polymarket

Ty Gibbs

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ryan Blaney

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$218,606
N/A
N/A
$183,763
Settled
No
polymarket

Ryan Blaney

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Carson Hocevar

0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$204,225
N/A
N/A
$192,529
Settled
No
polymarket

Carson Hocevar

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Bubba Wallace

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$199,307
N/A
N/A
$164,387
Settled
No
kalshi

Joey Logano

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$177,468
N/A
N/A
$162,938
Settled
No
polymarket

Joey Logano

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Josh Berry

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$169,038
N/A
N/A
$154,231
Settled
No
polymarket

Josh Berry

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

William Byron

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$165,870
N/A
N/A
$144,340
Settled
No
polymarket

William Byron

0%
95%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Chase Elliott

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$156,474
N/A
N/A
$145,676
Settled
No
polymarket

Chase Elliott

0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 82

Intro

This market tracks the winner of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 race, as determined by NASCAR’s official results. Currently, the consensus probability that Will Christopher Bell will win is 99.0%. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on information published at https://www.nascar.com. Keep an eye on qualifying results on September 12, 2026, as they may offer insight into each driver’s chances before the race begins.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists all potential drivers individually, while Polymarket includes an 'Other' option, creating a scope divergence.Hero tip: Consider the implied probability distribution across both platforms. Kalshi markets offer exposure to a specific set of drivers, while Polymarket allows for betting on any driver.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the driver officially listed in first place by NASCAR, with an 'Other' option for any driver not specifically listed. "This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place..."
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if a specific, listed driver wins the race. Each driver has their own market. "If Tyler Reddick finishes in first...then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a Polymarket on the winner of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500, scheduled for Sep 6, 2026. If the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cook Out Southern 500 is canceled or rescheduled to a date 7 days after the original scheduled date, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve in favor of the driver who is officially listed in first place in the Official Race Results published by NASCAR following the conclusion of the race. The official results are typically released shortly after the race ends and include any applied penalties and official adjustments. Disqualifications or changes made after the publication of the official results will not affect market resolution. The timing of the victory lane ceremony does not determine the result for this market — only NASCAR's published results will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source will be the official NASCAR website (nascar.com) and a consensus of credible sports news reporting.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether the specified driver finishes in first place in the 2026 Cook Out Southern 500, with results determined after NASCAR publishes the official final race standings. If the driver retires, is disqualified, or fails to classify as a finisher, the market resolves as No. Postponements within 48 hours of the original start time keep markets open for resolution upon completion. Cancellations or failures to start within this window lead to fair price resolutions. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with NASCAR or ownership of related trademarks, emphasizing that determinations rely solely on NASCAR's official outcomes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, the dashboard for the NASCAR Southern 500 market tracks the probability of various drivers winning the race. It aggregates trading volume from both platforms to provide a consensus view of who is favored to win. Currently, the total volume across both platforms is $4,406,707, with $3,447,966 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows users to see not only individual platform predictions but also a combined assessment of the potential outcome, offering a more comprehensive understanding of the market’s sentiment surrounding the Southern 500.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on their own analysis, while this market’s odds are driven by traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially as new information emerges. While sportsbooks may adjust their odds based on betting action, prediction markets continuously incorporate new insights from a diverse range of participants, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before the race concludes. Driver performance in qualifying rounds, weather forecasts for race day, and any late-race driver changes due to injury or mechanical issues are all potential catalysts. News regarding team strategies, car upgrades, or even unexpected penalties assessed to leading contenders could also shift the probabilities. A major incident during practice sessions, affecting a top driver’s chances, would likely cause a substantial movement in the market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on changing conditions.