TOTAL VOLUME:
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OPEN INTEREST:
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402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
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VS.
Kalshi:
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Closed: Aug 31, 11:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks who will win the first set in the upcoming tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Anastasia Zakharova at the 2026 US Open on Kalshi, with resolution based on the match result. The current probability of Naomi Osaka winning set 1 stands at 78.0%, while Anastasia Zakharova’s chance is 27.0%. The outcome will be determined by the match scheduled for August 30, 2026, so keep an eye on that date for resolution.
If Naomi Osaka wins set 1 in the Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anastasia Zakharova wins set 1 in the Naomi Osaka vs Anastasia Zakharova professional tennis match in the 2026 US Open Women Singles Round Of 128, then the market resolves to Yes.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders collectively set the price for this market through buying and selling contracts. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate view of all participants, with the implied probability adjusting based on order flow and open interest. As the event date nears, any new performance data, injury updates, or form shifts can cause rapid re-pricing, influencing where the market ultimately settles.
This market resolves around Aug 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winner of the first set will be compared against official match results, ensuring an accurate and transparent settlement. Timing aligns closely with the actual match schedule, so traders should monitor when play gets underway to anticipate the resolution window.
Key signals that could shift this market include practice updates, player injuries, or changes to starting lineups. Media interviews, betting trends, and pre-match analytics often influence trader sentiment. Any last-minute news affecting form or fitness may cause rapid re-pricing, so staying alert to credible sources in the days leading up to Aug 30, 2026 is essential for tracking potential moves.